Why Polish real estate is not ready to recover

It is all about supply and demand. This is what determines prices and nothing else. Cost and value are notions that are through back from Marx’s economic theory that the price of an object was determined by the labor or cost to make it. Modern economic theory says value is subjective and determined only by supply and demand. This applies to housing prices also.

• EU is not only in crisis but the Euro might fall apart, and leave the EU in shell shock for a few years, maybe ten. Countries that were throwing money into the Polish land rush are now fighting to save their own houses and collapse. Ireland, Scotland and England were the main speculators and now their lands are in trouble.
• Supply of housing has increase in Poland based on speculation that there is a huge over capacity of residential and commercial units. Because of the economics of the business cycle plans that were started years back are being completed now and the result is a huge over capacity. Empty lots and luxury appartements can not even be rent. Why would they be?
• Demand is continuing a down. I see large buildings that are brand new, falling apart a little as they have been empty for years. My friends are building new houses themselves in the suburbs rather than living in over priced city flats. Credit has not and will not ease any further. The population is not growing. Unemployment is about 13% which is not the best for a high prices.
  

  Polish house with red roof

  When I get the cash I will most likely build a house in the countryside, cheap. A house designed to my specifications and liking not some builders conceptions (to maximize profits) of a boxy house with small windows and a over sized red rood. I will build my dream home, eco friendly and in American style home. I want Polish people to do the same, that is have their dream home in their idea not someone builders idea and they pay it off with a mortgage for 30 years of hard work. Its very unfair to the people that live here.

I will build some American style house in Poland if I am lucky

Is this all bad? Not at all I am a patriot. I love Poland. However, prices are adjusting to normal levels from inflated highs based on foreign speculation. A unit in a city should be about 2000 Polish złoty a meter, but it is still about 5,500 pln a meter. The average person can not afford real housing because the Polish real estate agents and developers are trying to keep the prices inflated at all costs.

My brother in law build a home in the Polish countryside for under 1000 pln a meter. Its beautiful and not far from Krakow, where he works. Granted he did a few things himself but mostly local guys did it for him. A full house done by a builder now is about 2000 pln a meter.

How long will the prices of land and buildings in Poland stay inflated

Price will stay excessively high until they come down to 1/3 the level they are at now. So if a unit costs 6,000 a meter it will have to come to 2,000 a meter. I have seen the same situation in the USA. Prices in Florida and California are cheaper than Poland. These are luxury condos on the beach. I have seen bear markets last 10 or 15 years or never recover. People are fooling themselves if they think they can just wait it out. Take a look around you in Europe what is happening. It might take years if ever.

The good news is only the builders and Polish real estate agents lose. The Polish people will get reasonably price real estate again.

Examples of Polish government in Krakow

Clear examples how the Krakow city government betrayed the citizens of Krakow are, like Zakrzówek Krakow. which was a beautiful green area and lake or the use of Polish parks for joint private-public ventures like Polish beach Krakow.  I have even heard of a hotel on the edge of Błonia which is the cities equivalent of central park in NYC, or Hyde park in London or Boston commons, but I am sure this can not be true.

If you are interested more in this type of stupid Krakow government sell outs please see this Facebook group – “Krakow city government”

It is clear, Polish citizens have been duped by the Krakow city government, despite 10,000s of protesters. The Krakow, city government traded priceless green area that will never be replaced for green cash. What else could their motive be? What do you think?

Why is Krakow so short-sighted? Maybe it has nothing to do with money or business deals, maybe they are just plain short-sighted and do not know how a city can be developed in a way that would protect the heritage of Krakow and work with the citizens rather than  real estate developers in Krakow.

Krakow city government in these cases  is nothing more than an extension of the miesniak (Polish word for brainless guy who drives a BMW, wears a black leather jacket, and muscles and manifest very primitive behavior) mentality. Perhaps I am being a little dramatic, but the bottom line is they gave away this priceless land and there is nothing that can be done about it. All of Krakow is talking and complaining.

Krakow, Poland was one of the most  beautiful places in all of Europe, however, many people are now starting to preferring to travel to other cities in Europe that are not so commercialized. It is too bad because Krakow was such a wonderful place to live but I guess when it comes to foreign real estate developers and money, this is more important than Polish citizens and the people who live in the city on a day-to-day basis.

Can you fight city hall in Krakow?

I am an American and Polish citizen that lives here in the big K. To see all the billboards, ugly developement in the old town over shadowing historic buildings and pro-business, anti-citizen attitude that prevails is a pity. People ask me what can be done besides just being aware of the situation exists. My answer is complain.  Complain not just to each other but in a real way.

What can be done about this injustice?  Here is a call to action that you can actually do to affect the political process,  join the Facebook group mentioned above. This group it is run by Polish and American citizens who care about Krakow and want to protect the city of Krakow from the government of Krakow, so future generations of people can enjoy this beautiful city.

If you are on your way to get Polish citizenship, or want o get a Polish citizenship as an entry for the EU, then there is a new requirement you should be aware of.

If you want to stay in Poland as you are waiting for a Permanent visa you need twenty-five Euros a day for every day of your temporary visa.  This is a new law about three weeks ago.

The purpose of this new EU Visa requirement

The point of this rule is twofold. First, they want to make sure you can live in Poland without becoming dependent on your host EU country, that is Poland.

You are a guest and you are not a citizen and should not expect hard working people to support you just because.  Therefore this new Polish visa rule is very reasonable.  I think it takes more than twenty-five Euros a day to live in Poland so it is a very low barrier to entry.

When I applied for my visa for Poland the police reviewed my financial records and so did the city offices.  Now they have just made it more formal.  So it is not against anyone, it is just so you will not fall into trouble when you are in a foreign country in the EU.

The second thing this does is cut down on the number of increasing false marriages to get a visa for Poland.  One-quarter to one-half of the marriages in Poland to foreigners are fake, with the sole purpose of getting an EU citizenship.

This is very wrong.  People use the system and Poland is making it harder and illegal to do so.  If you get caught in some agreement, even if it simply verbal,  you could go to prison. And I think you should.

The foreigner pays some Polish girl ten thousand dollars and she get married he get citizenship and he is off to London.  The Polish girl has money they guy has a EU visa then and EU citizenship.

This is very unfair and very illegal.

Problem with false Polish visas

My parents were technically Polish, my family is Polish ( I am married) I have lived in Poland for about six years, I speak Polish and have worked legally in Poland. To get a Polish citizenship it took me about six year..  This was the fast track because my blood is Polish and under Polish law I am technically Polish, just not confirmed.

One guy from Peru it took him nineteen years.  Therefore, the Polish courts look at every case carefully.  If you are from Ukraine and married to a Polish citizen I think this is not a big deal as Poland and Ukraine share a similar history.

But if you are from Africa or the Middle East they will view your case with care because although some of these guys are sincere, many just want to escape their own countries for some reason.  I have been to Africa and the Middle East and it is beautiful, so I do not understand it.

In fact, many Polish girls are abandoned by their new husbands once they get a Polish visa.  And the Polish girl can not get remarried as the guy is no where to be found for a Polish civil law divorce.

I think this is funny and should teach Polish girls not to enter into such agreements based on money.  Marriage is for love.

New Polish visa law is good

I think this law is good to require on the Polish visa application twenty-five Euros a day.  It should be more.  If you are staying in Poland for One hundred days this means two thousand five hundred Euros you have to prove.

Student Visa for Poland

Student visas of course is different.  They have different rules, laws and regulations.  The above rule is connected to those who want to get a “visa for Poland” through a civil marriage agreement or contract.

If you have question about this issue or citizenship for the EU just ask. I am not an expert or a lawyer but I might know just enough to point you in the right direction.

What is with the SAO beach in Krakow? An Italian company, SAO, is building a night club on Polish public green land.  I have no objections to a night club and drink bar being built in Krakow, my question is, why did this Italian company get permission to sell Vodka and have a night club on priceless Kraków public park real estate?

Did anyone ever watch Dr. Seuss Lorax?

Krakow beach

SAO could have bid on private land like every other guy that wants to build a night club and drink bar in Krakow. Krakow has many pubs, why does this pub get to be in a Polish park?

The reason this foreign company got permission to build on priceless public green land (that could have been use for many things) is unknown.

Krakow beach SAO to develop cracow historic green

Beach is a trick

SAO is selling their investment as a cultural center with a beach.  Hah what a joke and an insult to the people of Krakow.

If you use your brain and read between the lines, outdoor swimming is possible in Poland for about 8 weeks out of the year. The other 10 months, it will be nothing more then a hotel and a place to make money off of alcohol sales, not a beach. It is a trick, a clever trick.

SAO talk about there being a park for kids, but why not build a kids park? What there might be is a couple of swing sets, things already found in Krakow. If they want to really do something for kids they could make a real park and education center.

SAO talks about Krakovians once remember the beach in the old times. Again, trying to paint a nostalgic picture. 50 years ago the beach in Krakow was free for all and the water was clean.  The beach SAO is building is just a small pile of sand (dirty) and will charge and sell drinks.

I have checked the construction of this SAO beach in Krakow. The beach or ‘plaza’ area is very small, most of their investment will go to the night club and drink bar on public land.

Furthermore, most people in Cracow have their own beach, they lay on the banks of the beautiful green Vistula river. Why do they need to pay for it now on some Krakow beach that will promote drinking.

There have been protest about the development of this historic park. The the city of Krakow is pushing beach saying ‘the people of cracow are ‘hungry for the development of their parks’!. This is not true, I know no one who wants this in Krakow.   I wonder if the city supports this for ‘other reasons’, hmm.

The Krakow beach, I mean disco and drinking club, is being built on green public land by an Italian company. Why not put a disco on Blonia  with rights sold to a German company?

If you ever wonder what something is about, its about money.

Boston beach plaza

In Boston they took public and private money and cleaned up a once very polluted Boston river, and now people can wind surf and play in clean water, in the actual river. Yes you can swim if you want to in the river. They took the money to clean the river.

In Montreal they created a one of a kind Biosphere.  Something that attract millions of visitors from all over the world. This is great for kids and adults.

In Krakow, for example Plaza Krakow beach SAO, is the lowest form of development. Commercial development with the mask of doing something good.

And worst the people of Krakow will never get this land back.  Land that date backs from the start of the Polish nation 1000 years ago.

Once SAO an Italian firm (Italian company with an Polish firm in name only) builds this drink complex is built it will stay, despite ideas that will not.

SAO Krakow beach an outsiders view

I am an American Citizen and from Boston and can see how clearly this is nothing more than a bad things done to the Polish people by a foreign company looking for money in their pocket on priceless Polish green land.

The Krakow beach is about something green in Krakow on public land, but not trees and parks, money.

Where is the famous Chakra of Krakow, which often times official tour guides do no like to talk about and many people ask me where is the Chakra of Cracow? It is in the Castle in the court yard in the East corner.

location of the chakra of Cracow

Here is a photo close up of the Krakow chakra. The energy is from deep within the earth and radiates up.

Krakow chakra

What is the Krakow chakra

There are seven energy plexus in the world, one of them being in Krakow, Poland in the Wawel castle.  It is the second chakra connected with passion and life generation.  It is an inter dimensional portal that has existed before recorded time.  Humans have lived on Wawel hill about 50,ooo year maybe as long as 100,000 years but I think more like 50,000 years at most, this is based on archaeological evidence.

Wawel hill was a center for Pagan worship and mythology with idols along the Vistula river.

I do not believe in all this new age stuff, but I do believe in archaeology and science and religion in the ultimate meaning of the universe.  I think there is a reality  deeper than our brains can perceive.  In fact, like Hegal argued there is a complex stratification of reality.

I point this out as the Chakra of Krakow is interesting and important part of some Eastern Religions.

You can see people meditating and touching it all year around.  So many people are there the walls are worn.

History of the seven Shiva energy stones

The seven places,  chakras, are: Krakow, Rome, Mecca, Delhi, Delphi, Jerusalem,  and Velehrad. This is according to Hindu religion. Look up lord Shiva, he is seen as the transformer.

God caste seven stones into the world and the energy radiates from these points. Some people say studies confirm this.

It would be cool if an inter dimensional time space portal plexus did exist there on Wawel hill. Let me know if you know anything more or have questions about the

Jak się masz the Polish phrase is the English equivalent  for how are you? is This is the first phrase most English speakers trying to learn Polish learn.   I think I learned this when I was a kid.  However I did not learn Polish until much latter.  I think most people dabble in Polish for years then buckle down and get serious at another point in time.

Phrases similar to Jak sie masz

All these phrases mean basically the same, an informal hello.  ‘ Co u ciebie’  means ‘what is up with you’.   ‘Jak tam’  is basically  ‘how are you there’.  ‘Jak leci’ is literally ‘how is it flying’,  or more generally, ‘what is going on’.

One of my favorites is,’ jak  leci stary byku’ – but warning, say this only to a guy and it is very informal. This means,’ how is it flying old bull’.

Note that when I wrote ‘Jak sie masz‘ in this  header I dropped the Polish character ę which is sounds like ‘elm’  I do this a lot when I write in Polish, I guess I am just lazy.  Everyone will understand you, but I know its not great, its like a spelling mistake in English.

Jak sie masz

How to I say masz jak sie

Jak sie masz is pronounced ‘Yak she mash’ , basically.  Note in the above header I played with the world order.  Again I did this on purpose, to show you that Polish has a flexible word order.  Granted you might never here ‘sie masz jak’ but in Polish anything is possible as it is such a crazy language.

Masz is informal

Jak sie pani ma, might be the formal equivalent of jak sie masz. As ma is the third person of have.  In Polish you speak a formal language to people you do not know. It is almost like you are speaking about them, rather than to them even though they are right in front of you. Jak sie pani ma means ‘how oneself have one madam’  while jak sie masz means ‘how have you’, basically. In general this is a basic Polish phrase for greeting someone.

If you have any questions about jak sie masz or disagree with any of the points above let me know.  I wanted to give you a phrase in Polish and tell you about it so you would learn more than how to say just ‘how are you’ in Polish.

Why is 50 kg to lbs important? I am an American in Europe and have only now after years of living here got use to kg.  The way I learned to convert kilograms to pounds is two ways. Living in Europe has its advantages after a small adjustment period.

Method one to convert kg to lbs

Simply know a kilogram is about twice a pound. Not exactly its 2.2 lbs. However, when doing it if your head at the deli for example its easier to simply divide by two.

Method two to convert kg to lbs

I am a big fan of rounding and approximating. I latch onto some common weights like 50 kg and memorizes the lbs conversion.  Something like 50 kg is great to know in lbs for airports or trains or even the weight of say your girlfriend.

50 kg to lbs

50 kg and European girls

I would say 50 kg is a normal weight for girls in Poland, Russia and Ukraine.  While in contrast in the USA 70kg is the average.    That is like a 50 lbs difference.  Maybe I am exaggerating here a bit. But I would rather show extremes as if there are any American women reading this I do not want to offend and would rather them see this and when they see this they say oh good, ‘I am below average’.

Of course I can not can throw any stone, as I love Polish cooking.

So what is 50 kg to lbs

That is easy 50 kg is 110lbs or more precisely 110.231131 pounds. So next time you here 50kg and need to convert it to lbs just think 110lbs.

I think after over 5 years in Europe I am very use to thinking in the metric system, but I still have to learn Polish better.

The real estate builders in Krakow are the greediest people I know.  Their typical net profit margin is over 100%.  Even in this downturn they are not lowering prices much.  Do you want to work your whole life for some guys fat profit in the Cracow real estate market.  I do not.  And what I write here about Cracow I guess this could be said about the Polish real estate market in general.

Real estate price equilibrium

The price of a flat per meter in most countries in Europe and state in the US equals the salary per month.  So if Krakowians are making 2,300 pln a month the price of a flat in Krakow should be 2,300 per meter.  However, the price is about 7,000 pln per meter.   Why?  Developers are greedy and real estate agents want to create a buzz and tell you it will go up.

Krakow supply and demand

Supply and demand dictates otherwise.  All over Krakow are empty flats and new investments coming on the market that were started two years ago. These flats will stay empty until the prices match the monthly wages.  Real estate agents in Krakow or develops can deny this but this is the law of supply and demand and many will go out of business before they admit the reality of the situation. In fact I have herd developers are taking people’s money then declaring bankruptcy.

Credit market in Poland

Even if the demand was there credit is not.  People need a large down-payment and to make 10,000 pln a month to get credit from a Polish bank, plus take a mortgage in Swiss franc or pay 30% more for Polish złoty.  Banks can make money selling insurance or credit cards to the rich before they enter a risky contract with the average Joe for a mortgage on real estate that might depreciate.

Kraków property

In the US I have seen three such booms and bust in my life time, each time no one can believe it the price will go down.  But it always does.  So if you do not like the price of property in the Krakow real estate market, wait a year.

Poland has dragged its feat regarding the Euro currency.  Poland is an EU country that has a strong economy and is very western, but it does not have the Euro currency. Even tiny Slovakia has the Euro. It was championed there as the currency that would prevent the crisis in Slovakia.  However, just as many Poles suspected it has made Slovakia a very expensive place.  Everyday thousands of Slovaks cross the boarder to Poland to go shopping (Slovaks do not need to learn Polish as the language is so close). In May alone 1/4 million Slovaks went shopping in Poland (there are only 5 million Slovaks).

Slovaks say things are up to 1/2 cheaper in Poland now.  The result is a boom for Polish exports and tourism.  Generally a weak currency is good for a developing country.  Look at China they have kept their currency weak to drive exports.  A strong currency is good if you are a consumer of foreign goods. This is why a weak currency is a good currency.

This is why Poland has been a Euro currency skeptic. I think Poland will get the Euro in 2012.

Wawel castle is an amazing place. Maybe I should not have made it my test for my new camcorder.  This is my first attempt at a YouTube video.  It is not as good quality as my last one as I did not understand the idea that a video camera must be still and the motion should occur with what you are taking pictures of. Any way here is a YouTube of Krakow’s Wawel Castle.

Wawel Castle history

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPsRTVGBdOY  I talk a little about the history of Wawel castle but left out most of modern Polish history because it was too much for such a short video.  Maybe someday I will make another video that will do more justice to Wawel Castle Krakow Poland.